WTPS31 PGTW 131500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 005// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131352ZDEC2020// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 172.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 172.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 15.9S 171.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 15.9S 171.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.5S 170.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 15.0S 170.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 14.8S 172.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 16.0S 174.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 18.8S 176.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 172.1E. 13DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 381 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES PRESENT IN THE EIR LOOP AND IN A 131250Z GMI 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (KNES AND NFFN, 45 KTS) AND T2.5 (PGTW, 35 KTS), AND A 050827Z CIMSS SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 52 KTS. TC 05P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME, A REPOSITIONING OF THE STEERING RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING FROM THE WEST. AS THE STR RETREATS TO THE EAST, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK INITIALLY WESTWARD AFTER TAU 12, MAKE A BRIEF TURN NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 24, THEN TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD AFTER TAU 48. BY TAU 72, THE STEERING RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM DRIVE THE VORTEX SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 90 KTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO CONTINUED LOW VWS AND WARM SST UNTIL THIS TIME. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VWS WILL SLOW THE INTENSIFICATON TREND, RESULTING IN A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KTS AT TAUS 96-120. THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE TROUGH-RIDGE INTERACTION RESULTS IN A DYNAMIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 72 AND YIELDS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD TURN. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK SOLTUIONS WHICH DEPICT A MAXIMUM 710 NM ACROSS TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 120. THIS LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN