WTPS31 PGTW 130900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 15.3S 172.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 172.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 15.8S 172.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 16.0S 171.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 15.9S 171.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 15.4S 171.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 15.2S 171.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.7S 174.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 19.2S 176.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 172.6E. 13DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 368 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES PRESENT IN THE EIR LOOP AND IN A 130517Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (KNES, 45 KTS) AND T2.5 (PGTW AND ABRF, 35 KTS), A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS) AND A 130224Z CIMSS SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 51 KTS. TC 05P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME, A REPOSITIONING OF THE STEERING RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING FROM THE WEST. AS THE STR RETREATS TO THE EAST, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK INITIALLY WESTWARD AFTER TAU 12, MAKE A BRIEF TURN NORTHWARD, THEN TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD AFTER TAU 48. BY TAU 72, THE STEERING RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND BEGIN TO DRIVE THE VORTEX SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 90 KTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO CONTINUED LOW VWS AND WARM SST UNTIL THIS TIME. THEREAFTER, MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VWS WILL SLOW THE INTENSIFICATON TREND, RESULTING IN A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KTS AT TAUS 96-120. THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE TROUGH-RIDGE INTERACTION RESULTS IN A DYNAMIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 72 AND YIELDS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD TURN. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK SOLTUIONS WHICH DEPICT A MAXIMUM 350 NM ACROSS TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 120. THE GFS, NAVGEM AND ECMWF SOLTUIONS PROVIDE WESTWARD LYING TRACKS THAT BRING THE VORTEX EAST OF NADI, FIJI BETWEEN TAUS 96 AND 120. THE GALWEM AND UKMET MODEL SOLTUIONS PROVIDE TRACKS EAST OF THESE SOLTUIONS WITH THE AFUM (GALWEM) TRACK BRINGING THE SYSTEM CENTER DIRECTLY OVER FIJI. THIS LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE EASTWARD BIAS RESULTING FROM THE GALWEM AND UKMET MODEL TRACKS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.// NNNN