WTPS21 PGTW 130630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0S 171.2W TO 19.1S 174.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 130600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1S 171.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.8S 170.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 171.5W, APPROXIMATELY 122
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES LOW LEVEL BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OBSCURED BY DEEP
CONVECTION. A 122104Z METOP-B 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS AN AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 122105Z ASCAT-B PASS
REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 30-34 KT WINDS UNDER THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CONVECTION WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 92P IS IN AN AREA CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P
WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
140630Z.
//
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