WTPS31 PGTW 130300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 15.1S 173.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 173.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 15.9S 172.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.3S 172.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 16.4S 171.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 16.0S 171.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 15.5S 171.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.7S 173.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 19.5S 175.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 173.2E. 13DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 327 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY FLARING DEEP CONVECTION, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. BASED ON 122017Z OSCAT IMAGE INDICATING AN AREA OF 35-39 KT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS, PGTW/KNES/ABRF/NFFN), THERE IS OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS NEAR-RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTING TO AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME, THE REMNANTS OF TC 04P APPEAR TO HAVE FULLY MERGED INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TC 05P. TC 05P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT TC 05P SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY LOOP TO THE NORTH AS THE PRIMARY STEERING STR ERODES WITH THE APPROACH OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AROUND TAU 72, A STR TO THE EAST WILL BUILD IN AND BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM, ACCELERATING THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, THERE IS RELATIVELY LARGE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS TURN WHICH IS CREATING A BIFURCATION IN THE LATER TAUS OF THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE NAVGEM, ECMWF, AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DEPICT A QUICKER AND SHARPER TURN AFTER TAU 12 WHEREAS GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AND GALWEM FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36 PRIOR TO TURNING NORTHWARD. OF NOTE, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATING A SHARPER TURN RESULT IN THE SOUTHEASTWARD PORTION OF THE TRACK PASSING CLOSER TO FIJI. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK OF 95 KTS BY TAU 96. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST COUPLED WITH MODEL SPREAD INCREASING TO 275 NM BY TAU 120 LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.// NNNN