WTPS31 PGTW 122100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 14.2S 173.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 173.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.2S 173.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 15.8S 172.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 16.2S 171.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 15.9S 171.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 15.5S 171.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.2S 173.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 18.6S 175.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 173.6E. 12DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A PARTIAL 121824Z SSMIS COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE OBSCURED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND SPREAD BETWEEN AGENCY FIX SITES, THERE IS ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS BASED ON A KNES/NFFN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). TC 05P IS MOVING THROUGH A MODERATELY FAVEORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29- 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND NEAR RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS EXPERIENCED DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH TC 04P WHICH HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF TC 05P. SINCE THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN, THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MOVED INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND CURRENTLY INDICATES A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER THIS, THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TRACK LEG AS THE STEERING STR TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO ERODE. AT THE SAME TIME, AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE THE STR TO THE EAST TO BEGIN TO BUILD AND BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THIS SYSTEM. ONCE THE TROUGH PROPAGATES PAST TC 05P NEAR TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST TO 100 KTS. THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE BINARY INTERACTION, COUPLED WITH THE REPOSITIONING OF THE STEERING RIDGE, RESULTS IN A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL TRACK SOLUTIONS WITH A MAXIMUM TRACK SPREAD OF 280 NM BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM AND GALWEM WHICH BRING THE VORTEX FARTHER WEST. BASED ON THE MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THE SYSTEM.// NNNN