WTPS33 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 007//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121351ZDEC2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING./
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 007    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 173.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 173.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 15.6S 172.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 172.9E.
12DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
337 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED, FLARING 
CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE POSITION OF THE LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP AS WELL AS 
EXTRAPOLATION THROUGH CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES PRESENT IN
A 120957Z AMSU COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF 35 KTS WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM IN DATA FROM
A 120844Z ASCAT-A PASS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE 
SOUTH AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) AND DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. DESPITE THESE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT ENTERED THE CAPTURE PHASE OF A
DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH TC 05P WHICH IS LOCATED
115 NM NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, 
TC 04P WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS IT 
ENTERS AND COMPLETES THE MERGER PHASE OF THIS DCI AND BECOMES 
INCORPORATED INTO TC 05P. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT DURING THIS 12 HOUR FORECAST AND THUS LEND FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED SLIGHTLY
EQUATORWARD OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  THIS IS THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL 
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF 
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 14 
FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
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