WTPS31 PGTW 121500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120321ZDEC2020// REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121353ZDEC2020// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 13.7S 172.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 172.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 14.7S 172.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 15.3S 172.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 15.6S 171.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 15.8S 171.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 16.1S 171.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.5S 172.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 18.4S 174.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 172.9E. 12DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 413 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP AS WELL AS THROUGH THE LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES PRESENT IN A 120958Z AMSU COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BASED ON THE 35 KTS WINDS PRESENT IN DATA FROM A 120844Z ASCAT-A PASS. THE WIND FIELD PRESENT IN THE ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE REMAINS BROAD AND ALSO CONSTRAINS THE INITIAL POSITION. TC 05P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND THROUGH A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND MODERATE POLEWARD AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH TC 04P WHICH LIES 115 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS RESULTS IN A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS NUMERICAL MODELS STRUGGLE TO CONVERGE ON A COHERENT SOLUTION. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TC 05P WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE CURRENT CAPTURE AND SUBSEQUENT MERGER PHASE OF DCI THROUGH TAU 72. DURING THIS TIME, A REPOSITIONING OF THE STEERING STR WILL TAKE PLACE DUE TO AN INCOMING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WHICH PROPAGATES FROM THE WEST. AS THE STR WEAKENS AND RETREATS TO THE EAST, IT WILL BEGIN TO STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. THE MAJORITY OF MODELS TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS CHANGE IN STORM MOTION WILL OCCUR AT TAU 72, HOWEVER THE GALWEM MODEL PROVIDES A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 96 WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK MOTION THEREAFTER. ULTIMATELY, TC 05P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48, WHEREUPON IT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO THE WEAKENING AND REPOSITIONING OF THE STR. THEREAFTER TC 05P WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE FINAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST THROUGH TAU 120. THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE BINARY INTERACTION, COUPLED WITH THE REPOSITIONING OF THE STEERING RIDGE, RESULTS IN A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL TRACK SOLUTIONS WITH A MAXIMUM ACROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 280 NM BY TAU 120. THIS HIGH SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED EAST OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE AFUM TRACK WHICH BRINGS THE VORTEX FARTHER WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.// NNNN