ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZDEC2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120153ZDEC2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 12DEC20 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.8S 176.3E, APPROXIMATELY 232 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, 
FIJI, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS33 PGTW 120300) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.9S 170.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 170.1E, APPROXIMATELY 
321 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING INTO A 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A PARTIAL 112125Z METOP-B 89GHZ 
SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS A POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE 
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 91P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (0-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL 
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91P WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE CONSOLIDATING BEFORE TURNING TO A 
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK. DURING THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BEGIN 
DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P, POSITIONED TO 
THE SOUTHEAST, AND MAY RESULT IN A FUJIWHARA EFFECTS THEREAFTER. 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.      
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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