WTPS33 PGTW 120300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 176.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 176.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 15.3S 174.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.5S 173.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 15.4S 172.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 15.5S 172.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.9S 172.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 16.3S 172.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 17.1S 173.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 175.8E. 12DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ALL ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FULLY EXPOSED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, PAIRED WITH AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 112012Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A TIGHT CIRCULATION, LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40 KTS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT DATA WHICH SHOWS A SWATH OF 35-40KT WINDS AND SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) BY PGTW AND PHFO. TC 04P IS TRANSITING THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (30+ KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME, A CONSOLIDATING MONSOON DEPRESSION, INVEST 91P, WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD AND INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF INVEST 91P TO TC 04P WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) AND POSSIBLE FUJIWHARA EFFECTS NEAR TAU 48. THIS COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS RESULTS IN HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH A COHERENT SOLUTION. THE 11/18Z GFS AND 11/12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS MERGE THE TWO CYCLONES AND RESULTS IN A QUASI- STATIONARY SYSTEM DOMINATED BY INVEST 91P. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE 11/12Z UKMET AND JGSM AND 11/18Z NAVGEM SOLUTIONS THAT DEPICT TC 04P AS THE DOMINANT SYSTEM. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS PROVIDE A LARGELY QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK INITIALLY THROUGH TAUS 72-96 WITH DIVERGING TRACKS THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH CAPTURE THE DCI AND BRING THE RESULTING CYCLONE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS FIJI AFTER TAU 96. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THIS TIME AND REACH AN INTENSITY OF 85 KTS BY TAU 120. THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES AND HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.// NNNN