WTPS33 PGTW 112100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 177.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 177.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 15.2S 175.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 15.3S 174.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.4S 173.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 15.3S 173.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 15.5S 172.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 16.0S 172.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.7S 173.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 177.4E. 11DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. AN 111837Z 91 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. BETWEEN THE EIR AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS, PGTW/KNES/NFFN) AND SUPPORTED BY A 111320Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 40 KTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30-35 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IN THE NEAR TERM, TC 04P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD ALONG A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. FURTHERMORE, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MONSOON DEPRESSION (INVEST 91P) WHICH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INVEST 91P TO TC 04P, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) AND POSSIBLE FUJIWHARA EFFECTS NEAR TAU 60. DUE TO THE COMPLEX SCENARIO, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. THE 11/12Z GFS RUN INDICATES INVEST 91P WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYSTEM WITH TC 04P SKIRTING WESTWARD TOWARDS VANUATU. CONVERSELY, NAVGEM DEPICTS TC 04P AS THE DOMINANT SYSTEM AND TURNS THE SYSTEM SHARPLY POLEWARD BY TAU 36 THEN TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD PASSING TO THE WEST OF FIJI. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, INTENSITY, AND TRACK, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLOW/QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 96. FOLLOWING THIS, AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE THE STR TO BUILD TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND THUS CAUSE TC 04P TO BEGIN TO TRANSIT POLEWARD UNDER ITS STEERING INFLUENCE. THROUGH TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE DUE TO PERSISTENT HIGH VWS AND DCI. AFTERWARDS, THE MERGED SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 80 KTS BY TAU 120 AS THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES. OF NOTE, THE COMPLEXITY OF THIS SCENARIO ALSO PRESENTS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO WHERE INVEST 91P BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYSTEM AND TC 04P DISSIPATES. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY AND POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.// NNNN