WTPS33 PGTW 111500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 13.0S 178.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 178.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 13.9S 176.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 14.3S 175.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 14.3S 173.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 14.1S 173.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 14.2S 172.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 14.6S 172.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 15.2S 173.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 178.0E. 11DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. AN 111300Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. AN 110905Z ASCAT-A IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED BUT DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH NUMEROUS 35-40 KNOT WINDS AND A PATCH OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WARM SST VALUES (29- 30C). TC 04P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MONSOON DEPRESSION (INVEST 91P), WHICH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS INTO A CONSOLIDATED TROPICAL CYCLONE. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INVEST 91P TO TC 04P, THERE WILL BE A LIKELY PHASE OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) AND POSSIBLE FUJIWHARA/MERGER NEAR TAU 72. THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO INVOLVES A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST AND INTENSITY FORECAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY INCONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN. THE 11/06Z GFS RUN INDICATES INVEST 91P WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYSTEM AND THAT TC 04P WILL SKIRT WESTWARD OVER VANUATU WITH RE-DEVELOPMENT. NAVGEM INDICATES TC 04P WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYSTEM WITH A SHARP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER FIJI. DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE TWO SYSTEMS (AS CLOSE AS 200NM) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DCI/FUJIWHARA, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REFLECTS A SLOW/QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 96. BY TAU 96, THE STR IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. THUS, TC 04P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK POLEWARD BY TAU 120. TC 04P IS FORECAST TO STRUGGLE THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, THE MERGED SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DUE TO THE UNUSUAL COMPLEXITY OF THIS FORECAST SCENARIO, THERE IS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO WHERE INVEST 91P BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYSTEM AND TC 04P DISSIPATES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.// NNNN