WTPS33 PGTW 110900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 12.9S 178.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 178.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 13.7S 177.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 14.1S 174.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 13.8S 173.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 13.7S 173.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 14.1S 172.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 14.6S 172.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 15.4S 173.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 178.5E. 11DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 313 NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. AN 110617Z MHS 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND AN 110630Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 2.5. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30C). TC 04P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MONSOON DEPRESSION (INVEST 91P), WHICH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS INTO A CONSOLIDATED TROPICAL CYCLONE. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INVEST 91P TO TC 04P, THERE WILL BE A LIKELY PHASE OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) AND POSSIBLE FUJIWHARA/MERGER NEAR TAU 72. THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO INVOLVES A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST AND INTENSITY FORECAST. GFS AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPS INVEST 91P AND WEAKENS TC 04P LEADING TO 04P'S ABSORPTION WHILE NAVGEM/ECMWF INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 91P AND ABSORPTION OF TC 04P. DUE TO THE DCI/FUJIWHARA SCENARIO, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REFLECTS A SLOW/QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 96. BY TAU 96, THE STR IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. THUS, TC 04P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK POLEWARD BY TAU 120. TC 04P IS FORECAST TO STRUGGLE THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, THE MERGED SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DUE TO THE UNUSUAL COMPLEXITY OF THIS FORECAST SCENARIO, THERE IS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO WHERE INVEST 91P BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYSTEM AND TC 04P DISSIPATES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.// NNNN