ABPW10 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/110300Z-110600ZDEC2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110153ZDEC2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 11DEC20 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 12.1S 179.9E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, 
FIJI, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS33 PGTW 110300) FOR THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.6S 179.3W IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. 
SEE PARA. 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.0S 170.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 170.4E, APPROXIMATELY 
425 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 102146Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A FULLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 
OVERHEAD. A 102032Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC LLCC 
WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST AND WEAKER (5 TO 10 KNOT) WINDS 
TO THE SOUTHWEST. 91P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT SPLIT WITH ECMWF AND UKMET SHOWING THAT 91P WILL 
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, BECOMING ABSORBED INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P. 
HOWEVER, GFS AND NAVGEM ARE SHOWING THAT 91P WILL BECOME THE 
DOMINANT CIRCULATION, INTENSIFYING AND EVENTUALLY ABSORBING 04P. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
WARNING STATUS. UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO MEDIUM.//
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