WTPS33 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 12.1S 179.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 179.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 12.8S 178.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 13.6S 175.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 13.8S 174.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 13.8S 173.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.1S 172.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 14.6S 172.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 15.3S 172.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 179.4E. 11DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC, WITH SUPPORT FROM AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A WELL DEFINED LLCC IN A 102147Z ASCAT-B PASS, WHICH AT THE TIME SHOWED THE CIRCULATION UNDER THE CONVECTIVE PLUME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS), AND THE ASCAT-B PASS MENTIONED EARLIER, WHICH DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF 35 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) WESTERLY VWS EMINATING FROM A POINT SOURCE IN THE VICINITY OF INVEST 91P OFFSETTING ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 DEG C) SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LAYER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED FAR TO THE SOUTH. TC 04P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWEST ALONG THIS RELATIVELY SHALLOW STR THROUGH TAU 24, WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING IN A MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, THE FORECAST BECOMES EXCEPTIONALLY CHALLENGING, AS THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO BINARY INTERACTION WITH INVEST AREA 91P. AFTER TAU 24, THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE CAPTURED BY ONE ANOTHER IN THE LOWER LEVELS, AND COCOONED WITHIN AN UPPER- LEVEL COL REGION BETWEEN THE STR TO THE SOUTH, THE NER TO THE NORTH AND UPPER-LEVEL LOWS TO THE EAST AND WEST, LEADING TO AN OVERALL QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT AS THE TWO SYSTEMS FUJIWHARA AROUND ONE ANOTHER. IT IS EXPECTED THAT AROUND TAU 48 TC 04P WILL ABSORB INVEST AREA 91P FORMING A MUCH LARGER TROPICAL CYCLONE, WHICH WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BETWEEN VANUATU AND FIJI THROUGH TAU 120. AFTER TAU 36, AS THE TWO SYSTEMS MOVE TOWARDS ONE ANOTHER, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TC 04P, WITH DECREASED VWS AND MUCH IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW, RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT, WITH MULTIPLE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS IN THE OUTCOME OF THE BINARY INTERACTION. THE EGRR AND AFUM MODELS INDICATE THAT TC 04P WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY INTERACTION WITH 91P AND RAPIDLY TRANSIT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CORAL SEA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATE A NORTHWARD LOOP, BEFORE BECOMING QUASI- STATIONARY TO THE NORTH OF ALL OTHER MODEL TRACKERS. FINALLY THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME INTERACTION WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH, THEN A QUASI- STATIONARY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAIN CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER, IN LIGHT OF THE VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND INABILITY OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO EFFECTIVELY MODEL THE COMPLEXITIES OF BINARY INTERACTION, THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.// NNNN