WTXS32 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 116.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 24 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 116.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 22.4S 120.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 24.7S 123.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 117.8E. 11DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 221 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED, STANDING STRONG IN THE FACE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), THOUGH THE MAIN CORE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT DISPLACED SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A COMBINATION OF DATA INCLUDING A SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS 102356Z ASCAT-A PASS, SPIRAL BAND ANALYSIS OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL BANDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM PORT HEDLAND. BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA, AT 110000Z, THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNTOS) BASED ON AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A SATELLITE CONSENUS ESTIMATE OF 42 KNOTS, WITH SUPPORT FROM THE AOREMENTIONED ASCAT-A PASS, WHICH SHOWED 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (30 DEG C) SSTS, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR LOCATED TO THE NORHEAST. TC 02S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, WITH LANDFALL IMMINENT JUST SOUTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ROBUST EXHAUST, AND PRIOR TO VWS DECAPITATING THE SYSTEM OVER LAND. HOWEVER, ONCE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION AND INCREASING VWS, LEADING TO DISSIPATION OF WEST-CENTER AUSTRALIA BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD LESS THAN 50NM THROUGH TAU 12. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK SPREAD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN