WTXS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 008    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z --- NEAR 22.2S 75.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 75.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 22.1S 73.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 21.8S 70.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 21.7S 68.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 74.8E.
10DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
920 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC), WITH FLARING MODERATE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE 
SOUTHEAST WITH EXPOSED SHALLOW BANDING IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTIAL 
101609Z ASCAT-A PASS WHICH SHOWED THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH THE 
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED 
ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS, WHICH SHOWED 35 KNOT WINDS TO THE 
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC, WITH WEAKER WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST, AND 
HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). 
TC 02S HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST, AS THE PRIMARY 
STEERING MECHANISM SHIFTS TO THE LOW-LEVEL STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. 
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TC 02S WILL SHIFT TO A WESTWARD TRACK, AND 
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THIS WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE DURATION OF 
THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS, 
AND COOL (25 DEG C) SSTS, WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST BY TAU 36. 
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.  
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S 
(THREE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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