WTXS32 PGTW 101500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 113.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 113.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 18.3S 116.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 21.0S 119.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 23.7S 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 114.0E. 10DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 399 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXPANDING DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 101104Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TC 03S TO INTENSIFY TO 45 KNOTS NEAR TAU 12. AFTER TAU 18, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH AN 85NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24 LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR 12-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN