ABPW10 PGTW 101330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/101330Z-110600ZDEC2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101321ZDEC2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.3S 179.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 179.3W, APPROXIMATELY 
356 NM NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 100415Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP FLARING 
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 100954Z ASCAT-C PASS 
DEPICTS CONVERGENT 30-35KT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN 
SEMICIRCLE WITH 25-30KT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 
90P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH 
(20-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SOME 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90P WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK 
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND BEGIN FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH INVEST 91P. 
MOST MODELS ARE RESOLVING INVEST 90P AS THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, ABSORBING INVEST 91P AS IT CONTINUES TO 
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 101300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.9S 169.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 170.3E, APPROXIMATELY 
420 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100740Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
BROAD, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 91P IS CURRENTLY 
IN AN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25-30KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 91P WILL TRACK GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH LITTLE 
INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT BEGINS FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH INVEST 
90P TO ITS WEST, EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED; HOWEVER, GFS IS 
RESOLVING INVEST 91P AS THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION, INTENSIFYING IT 
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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