WTPS21 PGTW 101300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S 179.2W TO 15.3S 173.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.6S 179.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.3S 179.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 179.3W, APPROXIMATELY 
356 NM NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 100415Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP FLARING 
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 100954Z ASCAT-C PASS 
DEPICTS CONVERGENT 30-35KT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN 
SEMICIRCLE WITH 25-30KT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 
90P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH 
(20-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SOME 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90P WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK 
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND BEGIN FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH INVEST 91P. 
MOST MODELS ARE RESOLVING INVEST 90P AS THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, ABSORBING INVEST 91P AS IT CONTINUES TO 
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
111300Z.//
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