WTXS32 PGTW 100900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 112.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 112.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.5S 115.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 20.1S 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 22.9S 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 113.0E. 10DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 461 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 100603Z AMSR2 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC WITH DISORGANIZED, ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 100225Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 30-35 KNOT WINDS, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS. THE LLCC HAS DECOUPLED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 120NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24 LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR 12-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN