WTXS31 PGTW 100900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 21.3S 76.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 76.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 21.4S 74.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 21.3S 73.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 21.1S 71.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 75.7E. 10DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BONGOYO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 876 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH RAPIDLY-DECAYING CONVECTION. A 100041Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT WITH EXPOSED SHALLOW BANDING. A 100341Z ASCAT-A IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AND A 100222Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 44 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS). TC 02S HAS SLOWED AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STR STRENGTHENS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 02S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO COOL SST (25C) AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS) WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN