WTXS32 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 13.3S 110.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 110.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 14.9S 112.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.0S 114.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 19.5S 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 22.0S 120.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 111.3E. 09DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLAIRING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A TIMELY 091750Z GMI 37GHZ IMAGE, WHICH CLEARLY SHOWED THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC, AND EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL SPIRAL BANDS TO THE NORTH WRAPPING INTO A NICELY DEFINED LOW EMISSIVITY REGION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS) AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T2.1 (31KTS). TC 03S IS TRACKING ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH TAU 12 WITH FAVORABLE SST OFFSET BY CONTINUED MODERATE EASTERLY VWS. BEGINNING AT TAU 24 AND THROUGH TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH, RESULTING IN INCREASED DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH INCREASED SSTS (NEAR 30C) WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. UPON MAKING LANDFALL, TC 03S WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48 DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MAXIMUM 150 NM SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48. THIS GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN