WTXS32 PGTW 091500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 12.4S 110.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 110.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 13.9S 112.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 15.7S 114.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 18.2S 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 20.6S 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 26.0S 125.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 111.0E. 09DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 627 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). TC 03S IS TRACKING ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH TAU 12 WITH FAVORABLE SST OFFSET BY CONTINUED MODERATE VWS. THEREAFTER, LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS ALONG WITH CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WARM SST WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 40 KTS BY TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA THEREAFTER. CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48 WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME. UPON MAKING LANDFALL, TC 03S WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER LAND DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MAXIMUM 140 NM SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. THIS GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN