WTXS32 PGTW 090900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 11.6S 109.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 109.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 12.8S 111.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 14.2S 112.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 16.1S 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 18.7S 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 24.0S 123.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 110.2E. 09DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 686 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED ABOVE A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) BASED ON THE 40-45 KTS WINDS PRESENT IN DATA FROM A 090152Z ASCAT-B PASS. TC 03S IS TRACKING ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL DURING THIS TIME WITH FAVORABLE SST OFFSET BY CONTINUED MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KTS) VWS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT FORECAST TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY, HOWEVER VWS FALLS BRIEFLY TO 10 KTS BY TAU 48, WHICH MAY ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY BRIEFLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA SHORTLY AFTER THAT TIME. UPON MAKING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN. THIS TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO SUBSEQUENT DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MAXIMUM 340 NM SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. THIS GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN