WTXS31 PGTW 090900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 76.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 76.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 21.0S 75.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 21.1S 74.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 21.1S 72.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 21.1S 70.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 21.0S 64.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 75.8E. 09DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BONGOYO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 829 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SPIRAL BANDING IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) THAT IS IN LINE WITH THE 45 KTS WINDS DEPICTED IN DATA FROM A 090429Z ASCAT-C PASS. TC BONGOYO IS TRACKING ALONG A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), COOL (25-26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THROUGH TAU 12 THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE. THEREAFTER, AN INCOMING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE THAT BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE THEREAFTER WHICH WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING ALONG THE WESTWARD TRACK THAT WILL LEAD THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MAXIMUM 190 NM SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. OVERALL THIS GOOD AGREEMENT LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN