WTXS32 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 11.1S 109.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 109.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 11.9S 110.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 13.2S 111.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 14.6S 113.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 16.6S 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 20.9S 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 24.7S 123.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 109.3E. 09DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 733 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC AND BANDING EVIDENT IN A 082241Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) ALONG WITH A 082306Z SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KTS. TC 03S IS TRACKING THROUGH A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENT INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, PERSISTENT VWS AND DECREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS AUSTRALIA. AS THE STR REORIENTS AROUND TAU 36, TC 03S SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED JUST PRIOR TO TAU 72. TC 03S WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OVER LAND DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM AS AN OUTLIER TO THE WEST OF THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. AFTER TAU 24, THE GFS SOLUTION DIVERGES EAST OF THE MAJORITY. AS THESE OUTLIER SOLUTIONS OFFSET EACH OTHER, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.// NNNN