WTXS32 PGTW 082100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070521ZDEC2020// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 11.0S 108.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 108.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 11.7S 109.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 13.0S 111.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 14.5S 112.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 16.6S 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 22.0S 121.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 27.1S 125.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 108.8E. 08DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081840Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH DEFINED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC LENDS GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. A 081446Z ASCAT- B IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHT CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 40-45 KT WINDS WITH A FEW 45-49KT WINDS EMBEDDED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AS 45 KTS BASED ON THIS ASCAT DATA. TC 03S IS TRACKING THROUGH A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). FURTHERMORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING SOME CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG ITS EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY. TC 03S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT, TC 03S HAS LIMITED TIME FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, PERSISTENT VWS AND DECREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS AUSTRALIA. AS THE STR REORIENTS AROUND TAU 36, TC 03S SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE ALONG TRACK AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 60. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND WITH FULL DISSIPATION OVER LAND EXPECTED BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER THAT, THE SOLUTIONS SLOWLY DIVERGE TO A SPREAD OF 294 NM BY TAU 72. SPECIFICALLY, THE GFS SOLUTION TRACKS FURTHER EASTWARD THAN THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON THIS SPREAD, THERE IS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR UPDATES. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS22 PGTW 080530).// NNNN