WTXS31 PGTW 082100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 18.7S 76.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 76.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 19.8S 76.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 20.3S 75.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 20.5S 73.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 20.3S 71.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 20.3S 66.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 19.8S 61.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 76.6E. 08DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1106 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING UNDER PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF DISCRETE BANDING EVIDENT IN A 081625Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND TURNING IN EIR. ADDITIONALLY, THE POSITION IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PGTW, FIMP, AND FMEE FIX LOCATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 55 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON PGTW/FIMP/FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS), A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS), AND A SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 54 KTS. TC 02S IS TRACKING THROUGH A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). FURTHERMORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING SOME CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG ITS EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY. THROUGH TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALONG THIS TRACK, TC 02S SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST. AN INCOMING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AROUND TAU 36, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN GENERALLY WESTWARD AS ANOTHER STEERING RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ALONG THIS TRACK, TC 02S WILL ENTER AN OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS AND COOL (25-26 CELSIUS) SST. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MAXIMUM SPREAD OF 210 NM IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 96. GALWEM IS THE ONE NOTABLE OUTLIER AS IT PURSUES A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS GENERALLY WESTWARD AFTER TAU 24. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.// NNNN