WTXS31 PGTW 080900 COR MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 78.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 78.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 18.4S 76.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 19.5S 76.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 19.9S 75.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 20.1S 74.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 20.1S 69.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 19.9S 64.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 19.7S 58.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 77.8E. 08DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BONGOYO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1199 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP AS WELL AS VIA EXTRAPOLATION THROUGH THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN A 080103Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS FURTHER PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS) AND A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS). THE WIND FIELD INTENSITY AND EXTENT ARE FURTHER CONSTRAINED BASED ON DATA IN A 080241Z ASCAT-A PASS. TC BONGOYO IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, TC 02S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DUE TO INCREASING (15-25 KTS) VWS, DECREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND COOLING SST THAT FALL BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS BY TAU 36. THE STEERING RIDGE WILL WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN INCOMING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WEAKENING WILL LEAD THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 36 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WESTWARD TRACK WILL BRING THE SYSTEM INTO AN OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BY TAU 48 WITH HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS, COOL (25- 26 CELSIUS) SST AND POOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. DUE TO THESE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A MAXIMUM 410 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. OVERALL, MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID JUST NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE NAVGEM TRACK THAT LIES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z. 2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED TYPOGRAPHICAL ERROR AND THE STR LOCATION IN REMARKS.// NNNN