WTXS22 PGTW 080530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070521Z DEC 20//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 070530)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4S 107.9E TO 13.6S 111.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.5S 107.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.6S 108.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 107.6E, APPROXIMATELY 324
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 072254Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION (LLCC).
A 071349Z ASCAT-A IMAGE DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH
A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF 30-35KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE.
INVEST 96S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL INTENSIFY AND CONTINUE TO 
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS
IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
090530Z.
//
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