WTXS22 PGTW 080530 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070521Z DEC 20// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 070530)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4S 107.9E TO 13.6S 111.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 080500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 107.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 108.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 107.6E, APPROXIMATELY 324 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 072254Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION (LLCC). A 071349Z ASCAT-A IMAGE DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF 30-35KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 96S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL INTENSIFY AND CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 090530Z. // NNNN