WTXS31 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 80.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 80.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 16.7S 78.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 18.2S 76.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 19.3S 76.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 19.9S 75.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 20.1S 72.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 20.3S 67.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 20.3S 60.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 79.5E. 07DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BONGOYO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHT CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED JUST UNDER THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 071647Z DIRECT ASCAT-B SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A TIGHT CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 45KT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. BASED ON THIS IMAGERY, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS LOCATED NEAR BOTH THE PGTW AND FMEE FIX SITES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS, MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS, PGTW/FMEE), AND A 071815Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.9 (43 KTS). TC 02S IS TRANSITING THROUGH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST, TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARDS, THE APPROACH OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ERODE THE STR AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 48, THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD, ALLOWING A STRONG STR TO BUILD IN SOUTH OF TC 02S AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KTS AND THEN STEADILY WEAKEN UNTIL IT DISSIPATES BY TAU 120 DUE TO INCREASING VWS, COOLING SST, AND WEAK BAROCLINICITY. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONLY THE UKMET SOLUTION AS A NORTHERN OUTLIER. THUS, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z.// NNNN