ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/071800Z-081800ZDEC2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070751ZDEC2020//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070521ZDEC2020//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 07DEC20 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 81.9E, APPROXIMATELY 713 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO 
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 070900) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.5S 107.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 108.1E, APPROXIMATELY 
297 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 071145Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH A POCKET OF RAPIDLY DEEPENING CONVECTION IN THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 96S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL CONSOLIDATE 
WHILE REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS22 PGTW 
070530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.7S 119.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 118.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
304 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION WHICH IS AN IMPROVEMENT FROM A 071324Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE REVEALED A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 071418Z METOP-C ASCAT 
IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KT WINDS. INVEST 99S IS 
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL 
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS AUSTRALIA WITH SOME 
CONSOLIDATION BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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