WTXS22 PGTW 070530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S)//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070321ZDEC2020//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S).//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4S 107.9E TO 13.6S 111.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 070000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.6S 108.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 8.9S 106.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 108.0E, APPROXIMATELY 279 
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY 
INTO A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 070231Z METOP-
B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A COMPACT (2-DEGREE DIAMETER) SYSTEM 
WITH A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. A 070233Z ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS 
AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 30-35KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 96S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL INTENSIFY AND 
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
080530Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 
LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 82.8E.//
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