SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED //
WTXS21 PGTW 070330
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060321Z DEC 20//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 060330)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6S 83.2E TO 16.2S 78.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 070000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8S 82.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 86.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 82.8E, APPROXIMATELY 720NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070049Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. 95S IS MOVING INTO AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT, WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD WITH WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE INTENSIFYING TO WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 080330Z.//