ABIO10 PGTW 061800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/061800Z-071800ZDEC2020// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060321ZDEC2020// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 05B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 79.6E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 86.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 85.5E, APPROXIMATELY 839 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061527Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE EAST. A 061526Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 35 KNOTS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTH. 95S IS CURRENTLY IN AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 060330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 106.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 107.4E, APPROXIMATELY 196 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA. ANIAMTED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061158Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTIVE RAIN BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. 96S REMAINS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH POOR UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND HIGH (30 TO 40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSETTING WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL REMAIN LARGELY QUASISTATIONARY WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION AS ANOTHER CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHEAST DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES. MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT SPLIT ON WHICH CIRCULATION WILL PROVE DOMINANT, WITH NAVGEM, ECMWF, AND UKMET SHOWING 96S AS THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION. 96S WILL ULTIMATELY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING, REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT REACHES THE AUSTRALIAN COAST NEAR LEARNMONTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN