ABIO10 PGTW 060400 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /REISSUED/060400Z-061800ZDEC2020// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060321ZDEC2020// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANT OF TC 05B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 80.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 79.6E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTH OF COLOMBO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 060120Z MHS NOAA-19 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTS VERY LITTLE REMAINING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE REMNANT OF TC 05B IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH SLACKENING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND INTERACTION WITH THE INDIAN PENINSULA OFFSETTING LOW (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANT OF TC 05B WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT FULLY DISSIPATES WHILE A NEW CIRCULATION BLEEDS OFF INTO THE ARABIAN SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 86.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 86.5E, APPROXIMATELY 853 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 060102Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH. 95S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLE (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD WITH WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE INTENSIFYING TO WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS; HOWEVER THE OVERALL WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN VERY ASYMMETRIC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 060330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 106.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 106.3E, APPROXIMATELY 168 NM SOUTH OF JAKARTA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 052320Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY OBSCURED, ELONGATED LLC WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION STEMMING FROM SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO THE NORTH. 96S IS CURRENTLY IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING HEAVILY OFFSET BY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND HIGH (30 TO 40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING TO WARNING THRESHOLD AS IT REACHES THE AUSTRALIAN COAST NEAR LEARMONTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED WITH TCFA REISSUE FOR AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).// NNNN