WTXS21 PGTW 060330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050321ZDEC20//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1S 87.2E TO 13.4S 81.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.5S 86.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 8.8S 86.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 86.5E, APPROXIMATELY 853 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 060102Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND 
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH. 95S IS 
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND 
WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLE 
(20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD WITH WINDS IN 
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE INTENSIFYING TO WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE 
NEXT COUPLE DAYS; HOWEVER THE OVERALL WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN VERY 
ASYMMETRIC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
070330Z.//
NNNN