ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZDEC2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: 
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 05B) PERSISTED NEAR 
8.9N 80.1E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH OF COLOMBO. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 051554Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTS DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A 
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE ACCOMPANYING 051553Z 
METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS NORTHERLY WINDS DOMINATING THE BAY OF 
MANNAR, INDICATING THAT THE LLC HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED. THE REMNANTS 
OF TC 05B IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING 
OFFSET BY INTERACTION WITH THE INDIAN PENINSULA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 05B WILL TRACK WESTWARD, 
PERSISTING AS A CIRCULATION INTO THE ARABIAN SEA WITH SOME LIMITED 
REINTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS..
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 8.0S 86.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 86.8E, APPROXIMATELY 631 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF BUILDING DEEP 
CONVECTION STRADDLING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) POSITION WITH 
FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A 051549Z 
MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION 
WITH THE SAME FRAGMENTED BANDING FEATURES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF 
THE LLC. 95S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK 
GENERALLY SOUTHWEST, DEVELOPING INCREASED WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE; 
HOWEVER, 95S'S WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 050330) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 8.7S 105.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 106.0E, APPROXIMATELY 156 
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) BEING SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 
051408Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN ISOLATED AREA 
OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLC WITHOUT ANY CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. 
THE ACCOMPANYING 051409Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SQUASHED LLC 
WITH LARGE AREAS OF 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH WITH 
A COUPLE BARBS SHOWING 35 KNOW WINDS TO THE NORTH. 96S IS CURRENTLY 
IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY 
UNFAVORABLE (30 TO 40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT, WITH GFS BEING THE ONLY OUTLIER, THAT 96S WILL 
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, INTENSIFYING TO WARNING THRESHOLD AFTER 
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT NEARS THE AUSTRALIAN COAST NEAR LEARMONTH. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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