ABIO10 PGTW 051100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/051100Z-051800ZDEC2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050321ZDEC2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 7.4S 84.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0S 86.4E, APPROXIMATELY 862 NM 
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 050725Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTION. INVEST 
95S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH (>25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK GENERALLY 
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 
050330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.7S 
105.3E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050850Z SSMI 
85GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD 
AND OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. INVEST 96S IS IN A MARGINAL 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH (>25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL TRACK 
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 
TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) AND 
REMOVED TC 05B.//
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