WTXS21 PGTW 050330 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040321Z DEC 20// AMPN/REF IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.2S 84.9E TO 11.7S 82.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 050000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.6S 84.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.9S 85.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY 738 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 041610Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SOME WEAK FRAGMENTED CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 1611Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH 15 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING IN ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. INVEST 95S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 040330). 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 060330Z.// NNNN