ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/041800Z-051800ZDEC2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041351ZDEC2020//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040321ZDEC2020//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04DEC20 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 79.4E, APPROXIMATELY 951 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, 
INDIA, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 041500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 6.9S 85.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY 738 NM 
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 041610Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
WITH SOME WEAK FRAGMENTED CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 1611Z ASCAT-B IMAGE 
REVEALS A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH 15 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING IN ON THE 
NORTHERN SIDE. INVEST 95S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (28 
TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE (15-25 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
95S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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