WTIO31 PGTW 041500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 9.3N 79.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 9.3N 79.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 9.1N 78.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 9.1N 77.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 9.0N 75.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 9.0N 73.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 9.4N 68.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 9.7N 64.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 9.5N 61.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 041500Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 79.3E. 04DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 951 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MOTION OF THE MID-LEVEL BANDS IN THE MSI LOOP AND THE RAIN BANDS PRESENT IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE A DEMS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS) BASED ON A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). TC BUREVI IS TRACKING WITHIN A COL REGION BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND A STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TRACK THROUGH THIS REGION HAS RESULTED IN QUASI-STATIONARY STORM MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS QUASI- STATIONARY TRACK THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN ASSUME A WESTWARD TRACK THEREAFTER AS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS AND THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT. THIS WESTWARD TRACK WILL BRING THE SYSTEM CENTER OVER SOUTHERN INDIA AFTER TAU 12. DURING THIS TRACK OVER LAND TC BUREVI IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 20 KTS BY TAU 24 DUE TO CONTINUED MODERATE VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE AGAIN OVER WATER AS IT TRACKS INTO THE ARABIAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE THEREAFTER WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, WARM SST AND IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THESE IMPROVED CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RESULT IN AN INTENSITY OF 45 KTS AT TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK MODEL SOLUTIONS. OF NOTE, THE UKMET AND GALWEM MODELS DROP THE SYSTEM VORTEX AFTER TAU 12, WHILE THE REMAINING MEMBERS OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AGREE ON THE WESTWARD TRACK PHILOSOPHY. THIS GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACK SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z. // NNNN