WTIO31 PGTW 040900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 9.3N 79.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.3N 79.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 9.3N 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 9.2N 78.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 9.1N 77.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 9.2N 74.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 9.4N 69.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 9.7N 64.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 9.9N 61.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 040900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 79.4E. 04DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 948 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MOTION OF THE MID-LEVEL BANDS IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM PGTW AND DEMS AND A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KTS. TC BUREVI IS TRACKING WITHIN A COL REGION BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND A STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TRACK THROUGH THIS REGION HAS RESULTED IN QUASI-STATIONARY STORM MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS QUASI- STATIONARY TRACK THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN ASSUME A WESTWARD TRACK THEREAFTER AS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS AND THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT. THIS WESTWARD TRACK WILL BRING THE SYSTEM CENTER OVER SOUTHERN INDIA AFTER TAU 12 THROUGH TAU 36. DURING THIS TRACK OVER LAND TC BUREVI IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 25 KTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO CONTINUED MODERATE VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE AGAIN OVER WATER AS IT TRACKS INTO THE ARABIAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE THEREAFTER WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, WARM SST AND IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THESE IMPROVED CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RESULT IN AN INTENSITY OF 40 KTS AT TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MAXIMUM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS OF 160 NM AT TAU 48 THAT DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY THEREAFTER. OF NOTE, THE AFUM TRACK CONTINUES TO DROP THE SYSTEM VORTEX AFTER TAU 48, WHILE THE REMAINING MEMBERS OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AGREE ON THE WESTWARD TRACK PHILOSOPHY. THIS GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACK SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z. // NNNN