WTIO31 PGTW 040300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 9.3N 79.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.3N 79.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 9.3N 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 9.3N 78.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 9.4N 77.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 9.4N 75.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 9.5N 70.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 9.6N 66.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 10.1N 61.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 79.5E. 04DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 202 NM EAST OF COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A TIMELY 032335Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. FURTHERMORE, THE MICROWAVE IMAGE ONLY DEPICTS A SMALL REGION OF FLARING CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). THE SYSTEM IS TRANSITING THROUGH A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF FAIR WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 05B APPEARS TO HAVE ENTERED A REGION OF RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO ITS VERY SLOW PROGRESSION ACROSS THE PALK STRAIT. THIS WEAK STEERING SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD AND MAKES LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN INDIA. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD TAKE OVER AS THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SPEED UP AS IT TRACKS ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. AS IT MOVES INLAND, TC 05B IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN, REACHING 25 KTS BY TAU 36. PRIOR TO TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE ARABIAN SEA WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY DUE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VWS, WARM SST, AND IMPROVED DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REACH 40 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DIVERGED IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE, NAVGEM, AND GALWEM TRACK THE VORTEX SLIGHTLY NORTH AND THEN WEST. CONVERSELY, THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTH AND THEN WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE MODEL GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE ARABIAN SEA. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS ONLY 70 NM AT TAU 120. THEREFORE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.// NNNN