WTIO31 PGTW 032100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 9.4N 79.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 79.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 9.4N 79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 9.3N 78.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 9.2N 77.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 9.1N 75.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 9.3N 70.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 9.6N 65.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 10.2N 61.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 9.4N 79.6E. 03DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 213 NM EAST OF COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR AND A SLIGHT EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 031636Z ASCAT-B PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS A SWATH OF 30-35 KT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 05B IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 05B HAD SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKED ACROSS NORTHERN SRI LANKA AND THEREFORE THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DUE TO THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS THE PALK STRAIT UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN INDIA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, MODERATE VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 25 KTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL RE-EMERGE OVER THE ARABIAN SEA AND CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING GUIDANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. AT THIS TIME, AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT (GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, INCREASING VWS, AND WARMING SST) WILL ALLOW TC 05B TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 40 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. OF NOTE, THE UKMET AND GALWEM MODEL SOLUTIONS DROP THE VORTEX AFTER TAU 24 WHILE THE REMAINING MEMBERS CONTINUE ALONG A WESTWARD TRACK. ECMWF DIVERGES AS AN OUTLIER TO THE NORTH THROUGH TAU 96 AT WHICH POINT ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE COMES INTO GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN. THUS, THERE IS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.// NNNN