ABIO10 PGTW 031430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE 
INDIAN OCEAN/REISSUED/031430Z-031800ZDEC2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021351ZDEC2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 02DEC20 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 82.3E, APPROXIMATELY 368 NM EAST OF COCHIN, INDIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 021500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 7.3S 82.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.6S 84.3E, APPROXIMATELY 718 NM 
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WITH MINIMAL TURNING. A 031051Z SSMIS 
91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A POORLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
A PARTIAL 030307 ASCAT-C PASS DISPLAYS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
15-20 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 95S IS CURRENTLY IN
A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY 20-25KTS
OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
95S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.
//
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