WTIO31 PGTW 031500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z --- NEAR 9.4N 79.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 79.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 9.5N 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 9.4N 77.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 9.1N 76.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 8.9N 74.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 9.2N 70.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 9.6N 65.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 10.1N 61.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 031500Z POSITION NEAR 9.4N 78.9E. 03DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 956 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED, RAGGED BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING FEATURES IN THE EIR LOOP AND IN A 031056Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEMS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND IS HEDGED BETWEEN A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 33 KTS AND A 030813Z SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 39 KTS. TC BUREVI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND THROUGH A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SUPPORTIVE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL IMMINENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF INDIA. CONTINUED MODERATE VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER INDIA. BY TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO 20 KTS AND TRACK ONCE AGAIN OVER WATER AFTER ENTERING THE ARABIAN SEA. AFTER THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ARABIAN SEA AND THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. DECREASING VWS, COUPLED WITH IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-30 CELSIUS) SST WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 45KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 200 NM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. OF NOTE, UKMET AND AFUM MODELS DROP THE VORTEX BY TAU 48 WHILE THE REMAINING MEMBERS OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AGREE ON A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. OVERALL, THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS LEND FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID NEAR THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z. // NNNN