WTIO31 PGTW 030900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 9.2N 79.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.2N 79.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 9.3N 79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 9.4N 78.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 9.3N 77.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 8.9N 75.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 8.9N 70.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 9.6N 65.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 10.0N 61.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 030900Z POSITION NEAR 9.2N 79.6E. 03DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 944 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING FEATURES IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 25-30 KT WINDS PRESENT IN DATA FROM A 030445Z ASCAT-C PASS AS WELL AS A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 34 KTS. TC BUREVI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND THROUGH A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SUPPORTIVE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS ONCE AGAIN OVER WATER AND IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT TRAVERSES THROUGH THE PALK STRAIT BEFORE MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN INDIA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12. AFTER REACHING 40 KTS INTENSITY BY THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN INDIA. THIS WEAKENING TREND WILL RESULT IN AN INTENSITY OF 25 KTS AT TAU 48 AT WHICH TIME THE SYSTEM CENTER WILL BE TRACKING OVER THE WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) WATERS OF THE ARABIAN SEA. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS TIME, TC BUREVI IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH WARM SST, LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ARABIAN SEA, IT WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 45 KTS BY TAU 120 DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A MAXIMUM 375 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS BY TAU 120. OF NOTE, UKMET AND AFUM MODELS DROP THE VORTEX BY TAU 48 WHILE THE REMAINING MEMBERS OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AGREE ON A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. OVERALL, THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS LEND FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z. // NNNN