WTIO31 PGTW 030300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 9.0N 80.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.0N 80.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 9.3N 79.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 9.3N 78.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 9.2N 77.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 8.9N 76.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 8.8N 72.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 9.3N 68.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 9.8N 64.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 9.1N 80.4E. 03DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST OF COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED OVERHEAD THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 022251Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS LOCATED IN NORTHERN SRI LANKA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40 KTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AN UNOFFICIAL PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) BASED ON CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ESTABLISHING AN OVERALL MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. IN THE NEAR TERM, TC 05B IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD, ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES OVER WATER WEST OF SRI LANKA. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN INDIA BY TAU 24 AND BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN. THROUGHOUT THIS TIME, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY DECOUPLE AND FULLY DISSIPATE. HOWEVER, RECENT INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL RE- EMERGE OVER THE ARABIAN SEA AND BEGIN TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 35 KTS BY TAU 96. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL OUTCOME. THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TC 05B WILL TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR ENTRENCHED OVER THE ARABIAN SEA. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE AS AN OUTLIER THAT FOLLOWS A WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.// NNNN